Freak waves explained?

Years ago when I was a lowly postgraduate student in North Wales there was a mysterious case of a small fishing vessel that sank in relatively calm conditions in Cardigan Bay. Concerns were expressed by some that the boat had been sunk by a navy submarine and after the relevant court cases etc. the local BBC station decided to make a short documentary about the sinking and came up to the lab I worked in to interview an expert and do some filming. I was setting up some waves in a laboratory wave channel for them to film so I got to listen in on the whole process from start to finish (I also had my index finger filmed as I used it to press the ‘on’ button for the wave tank – if ever there was an impressive claim to fame surely that has to be it!).

At the start of the filming process the interviewer briefed the expert (I’ll not name them) about the line of questioning the interview would take and absolutely promised that they would not ask the expert whether the wave that swamped the boat had been caused by a submarine. You can probably guess what happened – the interviewer proceeded to ask about each possible natural cause of sinking and each was ruled out in turn. With no natural causes left the interview then dropped in the killer question – so could the sinking have been caused by a submarine? To which the expert was left with no answer other than an open mouth and an uncomfortable pauase before a hesitant “I suppose that is possible” type of answer.

Since then I’ve come across several reports about freak waves, sinking and damaging ships and there was a BBC science documentary about freak waves a few years ago. Now, there has been some new theoretical research which suggests that certain configurations of sand banks can cause freak waves, up to three times the typical wave size, to occur much more frequently than would otherwise be expected. The authors of the work, which was reported on the BBC Website [09 August 2009] are at pains to point out that their work is theoretical, but should be possible to test their work with measurements made in particular locations. If their work turns out to be correct and to have wide applicability then the world’s shipping companies will be beating a path to their door in no time at all.

Flashman and the Redskins

I recently finished reading the seventh novel in the Flashman series by George MacDonald Fraser – Flashman and the Redskins. MacDonald Fraser’s takes the character of Flashman from Thomas Brown’s “Tom Brown’s Schooldays” in which Flashman is the bully who torments Tom Brown at Rugby School. In the Flashman novels, Flashie has grown up to be a high ranking soldier, knight of the realm, womaniser, cad, scoundrel and coward who works his way around the globe in a series of sdventures that bring him into contact with many famous characters and situations from real history. The novels are very cleverly done, being lightly edited versions of Flashman’s memoirs, backed up by footnotes to various types of corroborating historical evidence.

In Flashman and the Redskins, Flashie returns to the United States of America, first escaping from a tight spot by joining the wagon trains to the Californian goldrush and then, later in life, fetching up by a fairly convoluted route as a witness to General Custer’s last stand with the 7th Cavalry at the Little Bighorn. The two sections of Flashman’s life are cleverly tied together and the level of historical detail is so great that it almost spoils the flow of the story. Of course there is never any doubt that Flashman will come through unscathed with a few more female conquests along the way but the story gives another very readable dose of Flashman magic in another unusual setting.

Here comes the cold

The world is getting warmer right? Wrong – at least wrong if you are looking at global temperatures over the next 10 or 20 years. New research reported at the UN’s World Climate Conference has suggested that the world is entering a natural cooling trend associated with cyclic changes in the atmosphere and ocean currents in the North Atlantic (known as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation). The danger is that people might see this cooling as an excuse to take their eyes off the longer term global temperature trend which remains upwards. Early evidence of cooling may have come in the form of increased sea ice cover in the Arctic this summer in comparison to the extreme lows of the last couple of years. The research is described in New Scientist, Issue 2725 [12 September 2009].

Time for Plan B – Geoengineering

There has been a huge amount of coverage of the need to cut Greenhouse Gas emissions as the primary route to slow down, halt and eventually reverse the current global warming trend and rightly so. However, in the background there have been a number of suggestions for actions that mankind could take to directly counter-act global warming. Such measures are collectively known as geoengineering and include such things as the direct removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (e.g. by planting trees or fertilising the oceans) and reflecting incoming solar radiation away from the Earth (e.g. by using mirrors in space or changing the land surface to make it more reflective). These measures have not recevied much public attention, partly because they are all really, really expensive, partly because no-one knows how effective they would be and partly because by discussing the ideas in public we might distract attention from the goal of reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions.

Now, the tide has turned a little. A recent report produced by the Royal Society has highlighted the need to urgently begin considering geoengineering as a Plan B to reducing emissions. The report works through various geoengineering ideas examining their affordability and effectiveness and suggests that there should be a major shift of funding into geoengineering research. The report was widely publicised in the media at the beginning of September and the geoengineering debate is nicely summarised in New Scientist, Issue 2724 [05 September 2009].

The Damned United

David Peace’s novel “The Damned United” is quite a controversial book. It charts the story of the 44 day stay of Brian Clough as manager of Leeds United at the start of the 1974/75 football season. The book is critically acclaimed but it has also been slammed as not being representative of Clough and of what really happened at the time. Having read it I can see that writing a novel about something so recent and about someone so well known is really dangerous territory.

I picked up The Damned United to read towards the end of July but when I noticed that the book is written with a chapter for each day and that (in real history) the period covered started on July 31st I decided to start reading on that day and to read one chapter each day so that I allowed the story to unfold in real time. In some ways this was a bit frustrating because I often found myself wanting to read ahead but it was also interesting to pace the story out correctly as this helped me to get inside the head of the (fictional) Clough. The 44th, and last, day of the story was September 12th (so I finished reading the book a couple of days ago). One thing I will say is that if you don’t like swearing don’t read this book…

Anyway, there are two key things that the book gave me. First, it gave me a real insight into just how desperate it must be to manage a football team that isn’t winning (something which chimes well with the form of my own team – Plymouth Argyle – at the moment). There’s simply no escape from the failure and it’s hard to see how it would be possible to get any sleep whatsoever in this situation (in the book alcohol helps). Secondly, as I read the book it was impossible not to read it as if it was factually correct and so I am now left with a very clear impression of what Brian Clough was like at this time (I only remember him myself from slightly later in his career) but this is an impression that is actually fictional and so I do not know which parts are reasonable and which are not. I’m not sure this is fair on the reader and most certainly on the real individual involved. Tricky

Great Tales from English History 1

I’ve never been much of a history buff but I do quite enjoy reading a bit of history and I have recently really enjoyed Robert Lacey‘s “Great Tales from English History 1: Cheddar Man to the Peasants Revolt”. The book covers the period 7150BC to 1381 via a series of short sharp chapters each telling the tale of a person (or group of people) who have some historical significance. So, in this volume, which is the first of three, there are chapters on well-known figures such as King Alfred, William the Conqueror, Richard the Lionheart along with lesser-known ones like Elmer the Flying Monk. This is an easy read which whizzes you through this early period of English history (or at least history of the land that eventually becomes known as England), entertaining and informing along the way. Thoroughly recommended for someone like me who stopped studying history atthe age of about 13 but likes to know how everything fits together.

Royal Society – Science in the News

Earlier this week my attention was drawn to the Royal Society’s “Science in the News” web-page. This provides a really neat daily summary of the science stories that are in the national media with links to all of the various web-pages. This looks like a really neat site and one which it would be well worth visiting regularly. I’ve added the link to the Other Science list over there on the right →

The Snack Thief

Sometimes I buy books not because I know that they are a good read but because I like the look of them. It might be the weight or feel of the volume or it might be the cover design but sometimes there’s just something about the book that draws me to it. This was the case a while back when I first saw the paperback editions of Andrea Camilleri‘s Inspector Montalbano novels (translated into English by Stephen Sartarelli). “The Snack Thief”  is the third Montalbano novel. Like the rest of the series (so far at least) the action is set in Sicily and although there is a crime (or two) to solve the books are really about the quirky characters of the Sicilian police and the bizarre goings on of the quirky Sicilian people. I enjoy these books because they are laced with subtle humour and charm. When I read them I feel like I should go to Sicily, but, perhaps surprisingly, it’s not the Mediterranean scenery that attracts me, it’s the food. Montalbano just adores traditional Sicilian food and throughout the books he is fed well by his housekeeper and by the chefs in the various cafes and restaurants he visits. These books make me want to eat food.

Just for completeness, I should add that The Snack Thief involves a murder, a small boy who steals other children’s lunch snacks, a snuggling racket, a secret service plot, another murder and lots of good food.

Did I remember to mention the food?

Clouds and solar heating feedback

Clouds play an important role in determining the Earth’s climate. They can have a number of different effects but perhaps the most basic one of all is that clouds generally reflect solar energy back out into space thus lowering the amount of solar heating that strikes the Earth and is absorbed. This reflection contributes to something called the planetary albedo, which is essentially the overall reflectivity of the planet. The Earth’s albedo is generally taken as having a value of a little more than 0.3 which means that just over 30%, or a third, of all the solar energy that arrives at the Earth is reflected back out to space and clouds contribute a lot of this reflection. If the Earth had a higher albedo, it would absorb less solar energy and would potentially be cooler; if it had a lower albedo it would absorb more solar energy and be warmer.

So far so good, but it is actually really difficult to determine what will happen to clouds when the Earth’s atmosphere warms up (as it is). More heat in the atmosphere could mean less clouds as the air temperature rises and the water droplets in the clouds evaporate (becoming water vapour). On the other hand a warmer world will mean a greater tendency for water to evaporate from the land or ocean surface, increasing the humidity of the overlying air and increasing the potential for clouds to form when air cools (e.g. at high altitude).

Some new research has suggested that, in the north-east Pacific at least, a warming ocean is leading to less cloud which in turn leads to more solar energy reaching the surface (lower local albedo), which in turn leads to a warmer ocean, which in turn leads to less clouds, which in turn… This is an example of “positive feedback”  and is a potentially important finding which may help to determine which of the current climate models is doing the best job of predicting future global climate scenarios. But nothing is simple – it’s nigh on impossible to know whether the clouds studied are typical and/or whether the findings can be applied more widely. The work is described briefly in a news item on the BBC Website [24 July 2009].